Much talk at the 2008 Hedge Funds World Global Opportunities Conference, held in New York and hosted by Terrapinn,
focused on the challenges and opportunities of investing in the
frontier markets. Over the course of the past two days, many of the
panelists expounded on the major difficulties associated with investing
on the frontier, including political risk, volatility and the dearth of
liquidity. Considerably less attention, however, focused on a specific
challenge that may be of particular interest to our readers: the lack
of a well-developed financial research and information industry in the
frontier markets.
What Are Frontier Markets?
According to S&P, frontier markets are those that are “small and illiquid even by emerging market standards.” The S&P/IFC Global Frontier Markets Index
includes 24 countries globally, including Bangladesh, Botswana,
Bulgaria, Cote d’Ivoire, Croatia, Ecuador, Estonia, Ghana, Jamaica,
Kazakhstan, Kenya, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Mauritius, Namibia,
Panama, Romania, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Tobago & Trinidad,
Tunisia, Ukraine and Vietnam.
The frontier markets have several characteristics
that make them attractive to money managers. They remain relatively
under-followed by institutional investors, which opens up significant
arbitrage opportunities for those with an appetite for the risks
inherent in investing on the frontier. What's more, they have
relatively low correlation with developed markets, which make them
attractive at times when the more developed economies are struggling.
In the last five years, while the developed economies have sputtered,
the S&P/IFC Frontier Markets Index has had average annual returns
of 37%.
Financial Information on the Frontier
In spite of all the attractive qualities of the
frontier markets, gathering useful research and information on these
markets remains an ongoing challenge. In a presentation entitled
“Frontier Markets as an Asset Class,” Alisher Djumanov of Eurasia Capital Management
pointed out that few frontier market companies are followed by
sell-side analysts. He also noted that there is relatively low
transparency in corporate governance in these markets, which calls into
question the reliability and consistency of financial data.
While research and data coverage on the frontier
is sparse, it is far from non-existent. The conference included several
research and data firms that provide information on these markets,
including Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR), which tracks global fund flows (including flows to/from the frontier markets), and Investment Frontiers Research,
which provides research and consulting services to hedge funds that are
expanding into the frontier markets. What was clear from talking to
participants in the conference, however, is that there remains a need
for rigorous, on-the-ground primary research.
Posted at 10:43 am by William Greene
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